Brazil’s beef industry association forecasts exports up 6 percent in 2021

https://www.meatingplace.com/Industry/News/Details/96466

• According to Brazil’s beef industry association Abiec, Brazilian beef exports are expected to reach 2.14 million metric tons in 2021, up 6 percent from 2.02 million metric tons in 2020.
• Revenue from 2021 beef exports should reach $8.79 billion, up 3 percent from $8.53 billion in 2020.
• Antonio Camardelli, president of Abiec, stated that these estimates for 2021 are conservative and considers lower export prices.
  • Abeic forecasts the average export price for Brazilian beef in 2021 to be $4,104/metric ton, down from $4,224/metric ton in 2020.
    • This price decline takes into account for the foreign exchange rate and the issues that countries are still facing with Covid-19.
  • Abeic expects Brazilian beef exports to expand in countries they already serve and to also break into new markets.
  • Currently, 26 Brazilian beef processing plants are waiting to receive authorization to export to China, Brazil’s largest beef importer.
    • Brazil already has 35 beef processing units that are permitted to export to China.
  • The country is also negotiating to export fresh beef to Japan, Mexico, South Korea and Canada.
    • These markets combined have the potential to import approximately 260,000 metric tons of Brazilian beef per year, equating to $1.5 billion in revenue for exporters.

Livestock comments by Dr. Andrew Griffith

https://www.nationalbeefwire.com/livestock-comments-dr-andrew-griffith

• The finished cattle market is influenced by many factors.
  • One factor that needs to be considered is the number of cattle being shipped to Mexico.
• Since the first week of July 2020, over 10,000 hd. of beef cattle for slaughter have been shipped to Mexico.
  • This compares to only 134 hd. being shipped to Mexico during the first ten months of 2019.
• These numbers seen in 2020 are some of the highest volumes of cattle shipped to Mexico for slaughter since the early 2000s.
• Nationally speaking, the export of these cattle does not do a lot to influence the market, however it greatly impacts cattle feeders in South Texas where Brahman and Brahman influenced cattle are mainstays.
  • Mexico has provided another outlet for these ear cattle that will not grade Choice or higher which adds value to those cattle.

Unexpected volatility returns

https://www.thebeefread.com/2021/01/04/unexpected-volatility-returns/?ct=t(EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_1_4_2021_12_30)&mc_cid=47ff271ad4&mc_eid=c7ce35752d

• 2021 cattle markets off to an unstable and violent start as equities and multiple commodities sold off sharply yesterday.
  • By noon yesterday, cattle futures traded over 300 points lower.
    • This volatility may have been caused by today’s run-off election in Georgia or some unquantifiable reason.
  • Last Thursday, December live cattle expired higher than any other spot live cattle contract in 2020.
  • As of yesterday, February live cattle traded the lowest for its own contract month since December 2010 at $111.50.
  • Immediate fundamentals were most likely not related to Monday’s sell off as cutout values trended higher and are expected to increase as the week goes on.

Boxed beef prices

www.nationalbeefwire.com

• Choice boxed beef: $209.87 (-0.08)
• Select boxed beef: $196.53 (+0.88)