Current Cattle Markets Daily Headlines for January 5, 2021

by | Jan 5, 2021 | 0 comments

Brazil’s beef industry association forecasts exports up 6 percent in 2021

  • According to Brazil’s beef industry association Abiec, Brazilian beef exports are expected to reach 2.14 million metric tons in 2021, up 6 percent from 2.02 million metric tons in 2020.
  • Revenue from 2021 beef exports should reach $8.79 billion, up 3 percent from $8.53 billion in 2020.
  • Antonio Camardelli, president of Abiec, stated that these estimates for 2021 are conservative and considers lower export prices.
    • Abeic forecasts the average export price for Brazilian beef in 2021 to be $4,104/metric ton, down from $4,224/metric ton in 2020.
      • This price decline takes into account for the foreign exchange rate and the issues that countries are still facing with Covid-19.
    • Abeic expects Brazilian beef exports to expand in countries they already serve and to also break into new markets.
    • Currently, 26 Brazilian beef processing plants are waiting to receive authorization to export to China, Brazil’s largest beef importer.
      • Brazil already has 35 beef processing units that are permitted to export to China.
    • The country is also negotiating to export fresh beef to Japan, Mexico, South Korea and Canada.
      • These markets combined have the potential to import approximately 260,000 metric tons of Brazilian beef per year, equating to $1.5 billion in revenue for exporters.


Livestock comments by Dr. Andrew Griffith

  • The finished cattle market is influenced by many factors.
    • One factor that needs to be considered is the number of cattle being shipped to Mexico.
  • Since the first week of July 2020, over 10,000 hd. of beef cattle for slaughter have been shipped to Mexico.
    • This compares to only 134 hd. being shipped to Mexico during the first ten months of 2019.
  • These numbers seen in 2020 are some of the highest volumes of cattle shipped to Mexico for slaughter since the early 2000s.
  • Nationally speaking, the export of these cattle does not do a lot to influence the market, however it greatly impacts cattle feeders in South Texas where Brahman and Brahman influenced cattle are mainstays.
    • Mexico has provided another outlet for these ear cattle that will not grade Choice or higher which adds value to those cattle.


Unexpected volatility returns

  • 2021 cattle markets off to an unstable and violent start as equities and multiple commodities sold off sharply yesterday.
    • By noon yesterday, cattle futures traded over 300 points lower.
      • This volatility may have been caused by today’s run-off election in Georgia or some unquantifiable reason.
    • Last Thursday, December live cattle expired higher than any other spot live cattle contract in 2020.
    • As of yesterday, February live cattle traded the lowest for its own contract month since December 2010 at $111.50.
    • Immediate fundamentals were most likely not related to Monday’s sell off as cutout values trended higher and are expected to increase as the week goes on.


Boxed beef prices

  • Choice boxed beef: $209.87 (-0.08)
  • Select boxed beef: $196.53 (+0.88)



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From the Holcomb Tyson fire to COVID-19;
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