A steak in the game: Producers say beef prices are a bargain and cattle prices are not too high

Consumption of America’s favorite red meat has grown in recent years while the cattle herd continues to shrink due to low prices, drought and instability in the market. Additionally, the border is closed to Mexican cattle due to the threat of New World Screwworm and President Trump implemented tariffs on Brazilian beef. This produced a “perfect storm” of strong beef and cattle prices simultaneously.

Enter the last 41 days.

President Trump has made clear his plan to lower beef prices. With the recent removal of reciprocal tariffs on South American food products, the plans to quadruple the amount of Argentinian beef allowable under the tariff quota, and the reversal of the Brazilian tariffs, the last six weeks have brought the largest and fastest downturn in feeder cattle futures this nation has ever seen. On the flip side, consumers are filling their plates with more beef, and because the cattle market had shot up to record highs, cattle producers are still enjoying strong prices, albeit about 20 percent lower than six weeks ago. Beef prices, however, apparently didn’t get the memo. While boxed beef prices had made a minimal correction throughout the month of September, upon the President’s announcement to support additional imports, the price of beef did the opposite of what the President had seemingly hoped – increasing steadily throughout October and then leveling out.

It’s important to keep in mind that cattle prices remained strong in 2025 even with increased imports in some cases. In the first half of 2025, before the higher tariff rate on Brazilian beef was enacted, U.S. importers had brought stateside 132 percent more beef compared to that same period in 2024. USDA data also reports higher Canadian cattle imports of slaughter steers and heifers were slightly higher this year than last year, and about 33 percent higher than 10 years ago.

The Make America Healthy Again movement, led by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr., has drawn attention to the many benefits of beef, such as its status as a high-quality protein packed with essential nutrients. American culture is “obsessed” with protein, according to National Public Radio host Brittany Huse, who says items from pancake mix to candy bars and ice cream tout the “grams of protein” available in each serving.

In August, CoBank reported that consumer demand for any product typically drops when prices increase, but that beef “appears to be among the few exceptions to that rule, having defied common expectations surrounding price elasticity…demand has not softened – it’s actually edged upward…”

Examples of recent beef prices are as follows, bone-in ribeye is $12.96/lb, compared to $10.28 five years ago and $7.70 ten years ago.

Is beef too expensive?

Stratford Angus owner Steve Stratford who is also cattle buyer at Pratt Livestock located near Pratt, Kansas, took to Facebook in August to address this topic. He said cow-calf producers were enjoying record highs, which he called “well-deserved,” and pointed out that the higher prices were crucial to the survival of independent cattle producers. “The prices…are needed with the way the inputs have been. They were all going to be broke if we didn’t get to these levels,” he said in a Facebook video.

“It’s common right now…in the media…trying to predict when this will change…that we are waiting for the consumer to balk, and say that ‘beef is too high,’ I guess I’m here to argue that…beef is still a bargain, we are at the price levels we should have been for a long time for what you get nutritionally and in comparison to the other things they are buying.”

“I think as cattlemen and anyone that represents cattlemen, we need to be out there screaming from the rooftops that beef isn’t too high, it’s where it should be, and it’s so much cheaper in comparison to the other junk that you buy and as far as the consumer we are selling it to…I’m going to tell you some of the things they purchase and you tell me which is the better bang for their buck,” he said.

Stratford said that “beef, eggs and milk,” are the best deal for consumers when considering the nutritional component.

In Stratford’s local store, a one pound bag of corn chips cost $6, one pound of a sugary breakfast cereal cost $5, a 12 pack name brand cola is priced at $7, and an 8 oz. name brand lavender oat milk latte can be purchased for $6.37.

“I think we need to do a lot better job of defending that beef is not high. It’s still a bargain,” he said.

Led by free-falling live cattle and feeder cattle futures, cash cattle prices have also dipped to the tune of about a 20 percent reduction in value while the fundamentals (beef demand and cattle supply) have not changed.

This all happened during the “fall run,” which is when most cow-calf operators sell their calves, many sell their open cows, and some are selling bred heifers. For many producers, this constitutes nearly their entire income for the year.

The good news: throughout 2025, cattle prices were higher than most had dreamed possible, and climbing. The bad news: backgrounders and farmer-feeders who bought in at the high now face catastrophic losses. Additionally, many ranchers say the record cattle prices weren’t out of line with the increased cost of machinery, nutrition supplements, veterinarian expenses, land prices and more.